Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula, 6th – 9th Feb 2020 

Tips Re-Cap

  • SCOTT STALLINGS (USA) 80/1 – SKYBET 8 PLACES £5EW 
  • PATRICK RODGERS (USA) 100/1 – SKYBET 8 PLACES £2.5EW 
  • MAX HOMA (USA) 50/1 – BOYLE SPORTS 8 PLACES £5EW 
  • RUSSELL KNOX (SCO) 50/1 – BETFAIR 8 PLACES £5EW P
  • PHIL MICKELSON (USA) 28/1 – BETFAIR 8 PLACES £5EW 

The Courses 

One of the most exciting events on the PGA TOUR, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is contested annually in front of over 190,000 spectators and millions of television viewers on three of the Monterey Peninsula’s premier golf courses: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore. 

 

  • Pebble Beach GL – Course Par Value: 72 • Course Yardage: 6816 
  • Monterey Peninsula CC – Course Par Value: 71 • Course Yardage: 6958 
  • Spyglass Hill GC – Course Par Value: 72 • Course Yardage: 6858 

The Format 

The starting field consists of 156 professionals and 156 amateurs. Each professional is paired with an amateur player. On the first three days 156 two-man teams will play a better ball format with one round on each of the three courses. The pros also play an individual stroke play format. On the final day, those professionals and pro-am teams making the 54-hole cut will play on the Pebble Beach Golf Links. 

Individual Pro cut: At 54 holes, the low 60 scorers plus any ties. Players between 61st and 70th and ties, will receive both official money and Fed Ex Cup points, as the cut for this tournament ensures the field is smaller than a standard tournament cut of 70 to accommodate the pro-am teams playing on the last day. They are indicated as MDF (Made the cut, did not finish). 

Pro-Am cut: At 54 holes, the low 25 teams, plus any ties. 

Only professionals may compete in the individual competition part of the tournament. Amateurs are restricted to playing only in the pro-amateur team competition. The local Pebble Beach tournament officials organize the pairing of professionals with amateurs, while the PGA Tour manages the assignment of the pro’s tee times. 

Players Suited 

A mix of three courses here this week so looking at players that can adapt to various situations. Playing with amateurs as well, so fun characters in the game with a good personality should fit well. Good wind players always seem to perform well here.

Past Results 

  • 2019 – Phil Mickelson  
  • 2018 –  Ted Potter 500/1 
  • 2017 –  Jordan Spieth 9/1 
  • 2016 –  Vaughn Taylor 300/1 
  • 2015 –  Brandt Snedeker 25/1 
  • 2014 –  Jimmy Walker 28/1 
  • 2013 –  Brandt Snedeker 14/1 
  • 2012 –  Phil Mickelson 25/1 
  • 2011 –   D A Points 80/1 

Mike’s Picks

PHIL MICKELSON (USA) 28/1 

This for me has to be the best value bet of the week. What is not to love about this price and Phil this week.   

The record speaks for itself since 2004: 

3/1/38//1/MC/55/8/9/1/60/19/2/65/2/1 

Winner of this event four times Phil the showman just can’t get enough of this place. He is very wild and this has put me off backing him in a few times in the past. I just remember tipping him for the WGC in Mexico back in 2018 at 26/1 and he didn’t disappoint.    

The team followed him around a lot last week and saw some of that old classic swinging Phil back in action. I reckon he comes out the box flying here and will be strong contender.          

£5 each way bet here.

 

RUSSELL KNOX (SCO) 50/1 

We know Knoxy very well. I tipped him a few times over the years and most of you that were with us then will remember I tipped for the Irish Open back in 2018 at 30/1 and he won it.  

This is the sort of format and event he loves to play. As we know Pebble is played twice and it can sometimes play like a Scottish links type venue, and who is better equipped if the wind picks up over the weekend and is comfortable grinding out a result.  

His approach play has been impressive of late as well, key factors for Russell going in here: 

  • Approach the green – .827 – 15th  
  • Green in Regulation – 74.12% – 21st  
  • Going for the Green Birdie or Better – 66.67% – 28th  
  • Scrambling – 67.23% – 17th  
  • Scoring Average – 69 – 15th  
  • Total Birdies – 158 – 13th  

I feel he is well overdue giving GBT some cash. 50/1 is a good price with SkyBet and Boyle Sports paying 8 places, will be a standard £5 each way bet here.   Taken 10am 04/2/2020 

MAX HOMA (USA) 50/1 

We have been following Max for quite some time now and feel this week could be his chance to shine.  Why he stands out for me? His current form: 

  • Sentry – 25th  
  • American Express – 48th  
  • Farmers – 9th  
  • Waste Management – 6th  

This seems to be a good enough reason but the reason his last two events have been so good is that his overall strokes gained putting has been nearly a shot a round. Distance off the tee this week will also be a big advantage along with a good scrambling game is a must.     

Going for the green hit percentage is 34.62% inside the top twenty-five on the PGA Tour, big box ticked for me here this week. 

I would not take much notice to his start of the 2019/20 season as he seems to always have a slow start. I am taking the positives from the Sentry to now. He closed last week with one of the better rounds and this is a trend of his at the weekend his scoring is always so good.  Oh and last year had a top ten here so the format is right up his street.  

I will be betting £5 each way 50/1 with Boyle Sports paying 8 Places. Taken 10am 04/2/2020       

SCOTT STALLINGS (USA) 80/1 

Lots to like here with Scott this week. Not been the most impressive of play recently but has made his past five cuts managing a top twenty in Bermuda. He is a quality player and deserves respect this week at this price. Three-time winner on the PGA Tour having picked up his last win at the Farmers back in 2014. 

What stands out for me this week are the results he has had at coastal resort type tracks. Also, where the elements change from one day to the next. Here are a few that stand out for me since he turned Pro: 

  •  2014 – Australian PGA – Royal Pines Resort Gold Coast – 5th Place  
  •  2018 – AT&T Pebble Beach – 7th Place 
  •  2019 – AT&T Pebble Beach – 3rd Place  

He is a creature of comfort and just seems to love playing his golf here at the AT&T, his overall deminer seems relaxed playing tougher coastal golf courses. He said he loves the challenge of what the elements throw his way and makes him focus even more. 

Going to bet £5 EW  

PATRICK RODGERS (USA) 100/1 

Whilst writing this report I checked Betfair exchange and he was 120/1 on the 3/2/20.  

He was at the right side of the leader board last week at the Waste Management, where he closed Sunday with an impressive 68. I think the bookies have missed a trick here, he was ninth at the Farmers two weeks ago sixteenth last week. Tracking well to maybe pick up his first win on the PGA Tour.  

He has won on the Korn Ferry Tour picking up the 2015 Colombia Championship.  

He enjoys playing Walker Cup and Palmer Cup golf, perfect for this format with the Pro-Am type feel which should help him. He made the play-off at the 2019 RSM Classic but just lost out to Charles Howell.   

He missed the cut here last year but managed a top ten in 2018. Could be asking a lot for him to win so will be placing a smaller each way bet here of £2.50 EW at 100/1 with SkyBet paying 8 places.   

13th Beach GC, Geelong, Victoria, Australia 06th – 09th Feb 2020 

Tips Re-Cap

  • ZACH MURRAY (AUS) 80/1- William Hill 6 Places £2.50 EW  
  • MICHAEL HENDRY (NZ) 100/1- Boyle Sports 8 Places £2.50 EW 
  • CONNOR SYME (SCO) 28/1 – Boyle Sports 8 Places £5 EW
  • TRAVIS SMYTH (AUS) 40/1 – Boyle Sports 8 Places £5 EW 

The Courses 

The two courses at 13th Beach Golf Club – the Beach and Creek courses. 

The newer of the two courses here is the Beach Course. The 6,796-yard challenge features long rough and firm and fast greens, but its biggest defence is arguably the formidable presence of Mother Nature. 

The testing wind that blows, combined with holes carved through dunes, gives the course a strong links character. 

The par 3’s here offers a great variation to test all areas of iron play, from the brutal 180m 17th hole to the tricky 104m seventh hole. 

The partnering Creek Course, however, will feature all four days and offers a slightly different challenge new the newer Beach course. 

The gently undulating couch fairways are surrounded by fescue, with numerous bumps, swales and hollows adding to the challenge of finding the fairways and greens. 

Add to that the large, deep bunkers that defend the greens and you get a real test of golf Down Under. 

The Creek course maintains the best traditions of Melbourne’s Sand Belt golf courses, with the added challenge of strategically placed pines and the creek that comes into play on numerous holes. 

Play will take play on the Creek Course for the first two days of competition only. 

With both courses offering unique challenges, a winner here in Melbourne is a worthy one at that. 

Past Results 

  • 2019 – David Law -18 

Mike’s Picks

TRAVIS SMYTH (AUS) 40/1 

So, Travis came straight to the top of the betting for me here this week whilst I was looking for good value. 

Nine straight cuts made, five top twenty’s one second place finish. Great week in Singapore where a few big names made an appearance and saw Matt Kuchar picking up the trophy.  

He only just missed the cut here last year so will be out for revenge for sure. He is in much better playing form than this time last year and the results speak for themselves, you only have to look at his stats taken from the Asian Tour for 2020: 

  • Stroke Average – 68.63 – 9th  
  • Number of Birdies – 34 – 4th  
  • Driving Distance – 316.54 – 15th  
  • Putting Avg per GIR – 1.72 – 11th         

Happy to bet £5 each way here could be a player who should show some great cash out value in play as well.   

 

CONNOR SYME (SCO) 28/1 

Not the most of familiar names on the circuit. Connor has a lot of talent and is flying high at the moment: 

  • Alfred Dunhill – 11th  
  • Mauritius Open – 9th  
  • SA Open – 22nd  
  • Saudi – 52nd 

He has been working his way up the rankings for a couple of years now and looking good out there in practice this week.  

Already a winner on the Challenge Tour at the Turkish Airlines last year, he will win on the ET this year it is only a matter of time. I feel with a much weaker field this week it could be his best chance of picking up his first maiden victory.   

Key stats for me driving accuracy and greens in regulation both inside the top 11 for both in 2020.      

£5 each way bet here.  

MICHAEL HENDRY (NZ) 100/1 

This guy has “Game” and all I can see is a value bet here.    

I am not taking much notice of his missed cut in Singapore as it was his first event of 2020.  

What we were interested in was his performance at the Australian PGA Championship at the end of 2019, where we saw him climb over 400 places in the world rankings with a second-place finish, just getting pipped by Adam Scott by two shots.     

He seems to always feature in the bigger events, I see no reason if he starts well, he could well go on a roll here.  

Keeping another smaller stake here £2.50 each way. Boyle Sports 100/1 8 places.   

ZACH MURRAY (AUS) 80/1 

We found it hard to get players with any real value here this week. It is such a weak field all over but the past results seem to point to some home talent at some stage of the week. Zach could be this player.  

He holds some very good company at the PGA Tour of Australasia order of merit.  

  • 1st – Ryan Fox 18/1 
  • 2nd – Zach Murray 80/1 
  • 3rd – Brad Kennedy 16/1 
  • 4th – Wade Ormsby 16/1 

So, if you were after the value, he surely fits. The team caught glimpses of this kid whilst he played at the Abu Dhabi HSBC for the European Tour, against a very strong field he performed well and managed a very respectable twenty first place finish.  

Hits it a mile and will making plenty of birdies this week.  

Small each way bet here £2.50 EW. You can still get 100/1 with Bet365 and Vbet.   

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