Chez Reavie (USA) 30/1 – £5EW PP 8 Places

Harold Varner III  (USA) 33/1 – £5EW PP 8 Places

Bud Cauley (USA) 50/1 – £5EW PP 8 Places

Mark Hubbard (USA) 50/1 – £5EW PP 8 Places

Chesson Hadley (USA) 90/1 – £2.50EW PP 8 Places

Nate Lashley (USA) 175/1 – £2.50EW SkyBet 8 Places

Jamie Donaldson (WAL) 40/1 – £5EW Boyle Sports 7 places

Chris Paisly (ENG) 40/1 – £5EW PP 7 places

Antoine Rozner (FRA) 55/1 – £5EW PP 7 places

Johannes Veerman (USA) 70/1 – £5EW Bet Victor 5 places

Joakim Lagergren (SWE) 100/1 – £3EW Boyle Sports 7 places

Top Twenty Bet – Joakim Lagergren (SWE) 5.5/1 – £5 Bet Paddy Power taken 11.33am

Silverado Resort and Spa North

Course Par Value: 72 • Course Yardage: 7203

HOLE     PAR        YARDS

1              4              436         A great opening hole with a generous fairway to start the round. The best drive is on the left side of the fairway, leaving a clear shot into a well-guarded green. A good tee shot will leave players with a mid-to-short iron in, avoiding the false front should provide a good birdie putt to start the round.

2              3              240         This long par-3 will play uphill into a green that slopes from back-to-front. Players will be careful to avoid the large bunkers that guard the front of the green. Par is a good score on this tough hole.

3              4              424         The third is a beautiful dogleg left that gently climbs a subtle slope. A tee shot shaped right-to-left will leave a player with a short iron approach. The green slopes severely from left-to-right and punishes any shot missed to the right of the green.

4              4              407         An elevated tee shot on this short par-4 will give players a nice view of the Napa hillside. Players avoiding the fairway bunker on the right will have a short iron into this shallow and dramatically sloped green. Players able to hit to the right area of the green should be rewarded with a short birdie putt.

5              5              538         A double dogleg par-5 will reward players who successfully take an aggressive line over the large oak trees on the right side of the fairway, enabling players to go for the green on their second shot. A large green surrounded by bunkers waits.

6              4              417         The sixth hole is the longest par-4 on the front nine. Players who drive the ball closer to the large fairway bunker will have an easier approach into this large green. Choose the safer side of the fairway and you will need to play your approach over the bunker that guards the right side. Any shot missing the green to the left will find the grass bunkers.

7              3              212         Most players will hit a mid iron into the par-3 seventh hole. The green has a narrow opening in the front guarded by two bunkers. Players who are able to hit the green should be left with a relatively easy birdie putt.

8              4              360         The short par-4 eighth hole plays across Milliken Creek. Most players will hit a long iron or hybrid off of the tee. The green is sloped very severely from back to front and will require players to control the spin on their approaches. Any shot that misses the green will test even the best of short games.

9              5              557         This long, sweeping tee shot favours a player who can move the ball right-to-left. Once around the dogleg, players have a straight shot into a shallow green guarded by a bunker in the front. Players who hit over the green are left with a very difficult pitch to a green that slopes towards the front.

10           4              459         The tee shot on the longest par-4 on the course will be played from an elevated tee near the putting green. The dramatic tee shot must be played between two oak trees that are just off of the tee complex. Most players will have a mid-to-long iron off of the tee to a large green. The toughest pin placement is the small shelf located in the back left of the green.

11           3              182         The green on this beautiful par-3 offers three distinct targets. The hole locations in the left front and middle are the easiest. A hole location on the back left tier is a very small target and tough to find. A hole located on the right side of the green requires proper distance control and will challenge any golfer who misses the green.

12           4              391         Players will likely choose to leave their driver in the bag on this hole, opting for precision over distance. Anyone choosing to hit driver can fly the bunkers and have less than 100 yards into the green. This green is sloped back-to-front with a large bunker that guards the left side.

13           4              458         This straight par-4 offers up the first ghost bunker to the players. The bunker is not in play, sitting about 30 yards in front of the green, but will visually challenge the players to trust their yardage. This big green is loaded with subtle slopes and will challenge the best putters on the course.

14           4              412         Any drive that finds the fairway should provide players with a ‘green light’ to take aim at birdie. This generous and wide green is gently sloped from back to front and is a great target for players.

15           3              189         A middle iron tee shot into this green requires precision. Misses to any side, other than short-left, will leave players with incredibly difficult recovery shots. The safe play is to the middle of the green where a par can be made and disaster avoided.

16           5              571         This narrow par-5 is the beginning of the home stretch. The final three holes on the North Course offer players a great chance to move up the leader board. Players who hit the fairway with their drive can choose to go for the green in two or to play more conservatively and fire at the pin with a wedge. The green slopes gently from right-to-left.

17           4              375         Perhaps the most picturesque hole on the golf course, the 17h hole is a magnificent par-4 that should provide great fireworks during the tournament. A large grove of redwood trees protect the left side of this green. Players who play too aggressively will find their approach shots to the green blocked and will lose any chance to make a birdie. A drive towards the oak tree on the right side of the fairway opens up the green to an aggressive play and potential birdie.

18           5              575         A big drive here shaped right-to-left should run past the fairway bunkers and leave players with a good chance to hit the green in two. The second of Silverado’s ghost bunkers protects the left side of the green and will come into play for any mis-hit approach. This large and relatively flat green has very subtle breaks that will require a keen eye to read properly.

Past Winners

  • 2019 – Cameron Champ
  • 2018 – Kevin Tway
  • 2017 – Brendan Steele
  • 2016 – Brendan Steele
  • 2015 – Emiliano Grillo
  • 2014 – Sang-moon Bae

 

Chez Reavie (USA) 30/1

First up is Chez and a good price at 28’s across the board here. If he is going to win his third PGA title this year then I see no better place than here this week.

Six straight cuts made at this venue 53/17/22/13/33/33 as you can see some solid results over the past years here.

To win around Silverado you have to be straight, accuracy off the tee is key plenty of tree lined fairways so any wayward tee shots you will be looking at making bogies or worse very fast.

His last event out was the Northern Trust where the team were amazed at how straight this guy was with the big stick. He grew up playing on these type of greens so has plenty of knowledge and should be making a lot of birdies.

Going with a £5 EW bet here with PP 28/1 paying 8 places

Harold Varner III  (USA) 33/1

Yet to win a PGA Tour event but feel it’s only a matter of time for him to break his duck. Just recently at the Wyndham he had his first top ten of the season with a seventh place finish, he shot a 62 in round one to hold a share of the lead. He also held the 36 hole lead at the Charles Schwab back in June.

So the form is there just needs to hold four rounds together and this place could be right up his alley.

Here are some key points the team picked up on, why he should play well here:

  • SG Off the Tee – 17th
  • SG Around the Green – 32nd
  • SG Tee to Green – 8th
  • SG Total – 18th
  • Greens in Regulation 15th

A great iron player from long distance which will also be a big advantage around here. With all these positives he had better turn up this week after we have built him up so much.

Going for a £5 EW with PP 33/1 paying 8 places.

Mark Hubbard (USA) 50/1

Not very well known with most of you but a very good solid player. This season he has played 24 events made 19 cuts, where he was runner up at the Houston Open. Three further top ten’s and seven top 25’s.

He team said purely based on this guy’s putting is why they want me to put him in this week and I agree. He is around half a shot strokes gained on the field per round every week. This will matter a lot come Sunday evening.

He joined the PGA Tour in 2015 so feel now is about the time he chalked his first win on the board, he did win on the Korn Ferry back in 2019 which can only be a good and positive step beating a strong field with the likes of Latino Griffin.

He plays the par threes well and has one of the best stats on the PGA Tour, this can only be a great help around here. He should make a lot of birdies but needs to hit a lot more fairways than usual but feel that test he is more than up more.

Betting £5EW with PP 50/1 paying 8 places

Bud Cauley (USA) 50/1

A bit of a hit and miss player to be honest. Would have liked to see his odds more like 80’s.

I have followed Bud’s career for a while now and if there is a course set up and designed better to his game than this course, then I am not sure where else he would have a better chance of winning.

Bent/Poa grass specialist also a west coast natural. Here are some other factors that also stand out for me:

  • Bogey Avoidance
  • Birdies per Round
  • Putting
  • Driving Accuracy
  • Scrambling

He ticks all these boxes, for me it’s just whether or not he can combine everything and get four solid rounds in.

I am going for £5 EW 50/1 with PP paying 8 places   

Two Bigger outsiders we have also decided to add this week?

Chesson Hadley (USA) 90/1 PP 8 places

Nate Lashley (USA) 175/1 Skybet 8 places

Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course

Course Par Value: 71 • Course Yardage: 7191

At the time of creation, Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course was hailed as the most ambitious golf project Portugal had ever witnessed. Designed by true golfing legend, Arnold Palmer, there is absolutely no doubt that it has lived up to that lofty billing.

Covering some 90 hectares, the venue encompasses one of the most complete golf complexes in Europe, and features an exceptional driving range and a putting green of some 2,500 m2. All of this has made it the obvious venue of choice for many of the top international tournaments to visit Portugal in recent times. Indeed, it has served as the host venue to the Portugal Masters on every occasion since 2007, while the World Cup Championship was staged there in 2005.

The Par-72 Championship layout, measuring 6.651 meters (7,273 yards) from the Palmer tees, incorporates and has ensured the preservation of natural wetlands on-site, as well as the typical vegetation of carob, olive and almond trees. A significant proportion of Dom Pedro Victoria’s acreage is occupied by lakes, forming hazards to be avoided but which also have a strategic purpose in providing reservoirs for irrigation.

A number of teeing options on each hole (often as many as six are offered), accompanied by wide but undulating fairways, provide a fair test of golf, although water and cleverly-positioned bunkers pose a constant threat.

The Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course quickly became one of the best golf courses in Portugal, with a layout that presents a challenge even for the most seasoned players.

Course Winners

  • 2019 – Steven Brown
  • 2018 – Tom Lewis
  • 2017 – Lucas Bjerregaard
  • 2016 – Padraig Harrington
  • 2015 – Andy Sullivan
  • 2014 – Alexander Levy

 

Jamie Donaldson (WAL) 40/1

This former world number 25 is finding his mojo again and feel this week will be a great time to play him.

The UK swing we saw some of that old playing magic where he had a 15th place at the Hero and then a 14th place at the English Championship. Last week was a struggle for many and the cut being around 8 over par showed us that but he made the cut and held the lead in parts over the week.

I just like his stats and mirroring it to this course, I can see another very good week ahead.

  • Driving Accuracy – 64.44%
  • Greens in Reg – 73.29%
  • Stroke Average – 70.46

With three Tour wins under his belt he is a bit like the pedigree waiting to pounce.

Boyle Sports best out there giving us 40/1 paying 7 places betting £5EW.    

Chris Paisley (ENG) 40/1

Chris has showed us a very mixed bag since returning after lockdown. But within that the golf he has played has been very good to watch.

To be fair to him the UK Swing the last three courses were not to his strengths but he still managed to put in some good results. Missed the Spanish last week so should be well fresh and ready to go attacking early doors this week.

I think he picked to play this event because he just loves this golf course and it suits him so well. He has had two top five’s here over the past four years so he must like something about the set up and Portugal.

He could low here this week and we saw just what a great putter he was yesterday on the practice green he canned 100 putts using a great drill from 10 to 15 feet WOW. This probably backs up why his putting stats for this season are so good:

Putts per green in regulation – 1.73 – 8th

Average Putts per round – 28.05 – 3rd

Going for a £5 EW with PP 40/1 paying 7 places

   

Antoine Rozner (FRA) 55/1

This player from France was on fire last week. He held on to manage a third place at the Estrella Damm at +4 only two shots back.

Everything about his game I just love he is so consistent across the whole board it is hard to fault him coming to a course that should suit him. Check out his stats ranking taken from the European Tour:

  • Driving Distance – 29th
  • GIR – 20th
  • Stroke Average – 22nd

These are just a few of points that edged him ahead of a few others on the short list this week.

This week will feel like more of a resort type course for him and he seems to raise his game when playing these. He will grind out a round and should make the cut here and if the putter gets hot then he could go low around here.

Betting £5EW with PP 55/1 paying 7 places.     

Johannes Veerman (USA) 70/1

Well what with our good friend John Catlin winning last week who we tipped a few weeks back finally got the job done yet another near miss for us in 2020. This is another great looking Yank who should follow in John’s footsteps and take a lot of self believe that he too can win on the European Tour.

He has played well in the UK picking up a 17th place at the British Masters followed that with a top thirty at the Hero and then only last week at the Estrella held on to close with a 74 on Sunday for a top ten finish.

One of his best attributes has to be his greens in regulation play not many in the field this week better to be honest. Again he should suit the greens here in Portugal better than the UK so combine the two and he should be setting up plenty of good chances on the greens.

Sticking with a £5EW here with Bet Victor 70/1 5 places      

Big Outsider bet as well as a Top Twenty Bet

Joakim Lagergren (SWE) 100/1 – Boyle Sports 7 places bet £3EW

Joakim Lagergren (SWE) 5/1 – Top Twenty Bet 5.5/1 Bet £5

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