TIPS RE-CAP – ODDS TAKEN 9TH MARCH

  • BRYSON DECHAMBEAU (USA) 25/1 – £5 EW   
  • PATRICK CANTLAY (USA) 28/1 – £5 EW 
  • SHANE LOWRY (IRE) 80/1 – £5 EW 
  • MATT FITZPATRICK (ENG) 66/1 – £5 EW
  • SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (USA) 100/1 – £5 EW
  • DANIEL BERGER (USA) 66/1 – £5 EW
  • JOEL DAHMEN (USA) 125/1 – £3 EW 
  • 1st ROUND LEADER BET – PATRICK CANTLAY (USA) 35/1 – £5EW 

TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, Par 72 – Yardage 7,442 

The TPC at Sawgrass is situated in Ponte Vedra Beach’s Sawgrass development. It has two individual courses, the Stadium Course and the Valley Course. The Stadium Course was designed by noted golf course architects Pete and Alice Dye, and is known as one of the most difficult golf courses in the world. Constructed specifically to host The Players Championship, it employs a distinctive “stadium” concept. Like in other sports, fans at the TPC sit in stands made of raised mounds of grass. It is known for its signature hole, the par 3, 137 yards 17th, known as the “Island Green,” one of golf’s most recognizable and difficult holes. 

Players Suited 

Well known as the fifth major. Always played on the same course at TPC Sawgrass and a very stern test. Players able to move the ball from left to right and right to left and with a good off the tee game is a must. It is over 7000 yards, and from the fourteenth hole in it’s not for the faint hearted, with the famous 17th island green looming it always makes for an exciting finish. The greens were changed in 2017 to TifEagle Bermuda grass to offer a much faster speed. The past winners nearly always scored high in the scrabbling stats at the end of the week as well. But it has thrown up some very big priced winners in the past.  

Past Results 

  • 2019 Rory McIlroy 14/1
  • 2018 Webb Simson 100/1
  • 2017  Si Woo Kim 500/1
  • 2016  Jason Day 12/1
  • 2015  Rickie Fowler 66/1
  • 2014  Martin Kaymer 90/1
  • 2013  Tiger Woods 9/1
  • 2012  Matt Kuchar 55/1

Mike’s Picks

BRYSON DECHAMBEAU (USA) 22/1

Our first pick of this week is a no brainer with Bryson. He showed such brilliance on the back nine last week to manage a great top five finish.     

Four top tens’ in his last five tournaments.  It’s only a matter of time before he picks up his sixth PGA Tour title.   

  • Arnold Palmer – 4th  
  • WGC Mexico – 2nd  
  • Genesis – 5th  
  • Omega Dubai – 8th  

Off the tee is one of the main factors in this events history and there are only two players better than him right now on the PGA Tour and that is Garcia and Champ. He leads the driving distance with 321 yards a birdie average of 4.31 per round. Everything here reads a green light GO GO GO 

£5 EW bet 

PATRICK CANTLAY (USA) 28/1 

Patrick is a no brainer here to be honest this week, he was already on the pick list Sunday evening, and I am sure most people will have him in their fantasy team this week.  

I was surprised he has not had a better result here at the Players, because it should suit all aspects of his game. Also, the fact that it is a Pete Dye designed course where he has had many good results in the past on very similar tracks.  

His results here are twenty second place in 2017, he then followed that with a twenty third in 2018. The missed cut last year I am not too fussed about the game is peaking just in time. 

Form coming in:    4th at the Sentry – 11th at the AT&T – 17th at the Genesis 

He confirmed my choice in him after what we saw on the practice green, the team said he looked solid and was working hard on perfecting his stroke, he looked a lot more relaxed and should be ready to make a lot of birdies this week.       

I will be betting £5 EW – 28’s is still a very good price with about six bookmakers. 30’s on Betfair Exch.  

I am going to also bet £5 EW on him to be the first-round leader this week. He is 35/1 with many bookies but Betfair/ PP and Boyle all paying 7 places. 

SHANE LOWRY (IRE) 80/1 

British Open champion golfer of the year is now coming into some great from, he always seems to time his form ready for the Masters, as we know he has bagged us a lot of cash over the years. 

He missed the cut at the HSBC in Abu Dhbai but since then we have seen all positives about his overall game. After his missed cut here last year, he could put a few demons to bed and have a really good run this week. He managed a 16th place here in 2016 so we can forgive his missed cuts here.  

Another great off the tee player, making over half a shot on the field per round so far in 2020. Short game is a must around here and we know what a great short game he possesses.   

The only real concern for me was the putter and if he could turn that around in time for the Masters. Well from what the team saw at the Honda he has done just that. Switching a negative -.369 putting at the WGC Mexico to a +307 strokes gained putting.  

He follows trends and known to us as a feel-good player and normally continues good run of form.    

80/1 Bet 365 6 places – For me is such a great bet going to bet £5 EW. He is around 100/1 on the BetFair Exch.    

MATT FITZPATRICK (ENG) 66/1 

This is the week I have been waiting for to play Matt. He is now I feel in the right place to take on TPC Sawgrass. He has been ticking along nicely on the PGA this season six events played six cuts made. What about last week and Matt’s final round 69 while everyone else was hanging on trying not to make bogeys, he pulled off one of the rounds of the week. 

It could be a great year for Matt and with already being involved in the Ryder Cup in 2016, I am sure he wants to be the part of this year’s winning European team.  

We noticed over some of his previous rounds his Par 3 scoring has been quite poor, that said he has still scored well on the par fours and par fives. Sawgrass only has the four-par three’s this week and with three of those being inside 160 yards, I feel this will only help Matt’s overall scoring over the week.    

Another £5 EW bet here. You can get him from 60/1 to 75/1.    

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER (USA) 100/1 

Big price for this talented American. I can understand why he is this big a price in the market, he blows hot and cold from time to time. Normally when he finds some form however it runs for a while. This is what I like most about his trends right now.  

Third a while ago at the American Express he then follows that with two back to back missed cuts at the Farmers and Waste. Then has showed a steady improvement week on week since the Genesis where he had a top thirty followed that the same in Mexico and then only last week his best finish for some time, with a fifteenth place at the Arnold Palmer against the world’s best players.  

He ticks all the boxes to get the win done at Sawgrass, even though it will be his first visit, many rookies have played well around here in the past.    

He joined the Korn Ferry Tour in 2019 and managed two wins, he then progressed to the PGA Tour in 2020 and has already been so close to picking up his first win. To think he only turned Professional in 2018, and at twenty-three years old, his career is only just started.  

Am going to stick with £5 EW at 100/1. You can get 125/1 with Bet365 same on the Exch. 

DANIEL BERGER (USA) 80/1 

He is a player who should not really need an introduction check out his 2020 results already: 

  •  Sony Open 38th – American Express 29th – Waste 9th – AT&T 5th – Honda 4th  

Nine events played so far eight cuts made, six top-twenty-five finishes and three top ten spots.  This guy is a proper ball striker, if you ever get the chance to see him live you will know what we are talking about, hits his irons as pure as you like. He is steady becoming a well-rounded Tour pro and has been improving year on year.  

Winner of two PGA Tour titles both wins coming at the St Jude Classic first time was in 2016 he then defended his title in 2017 and won it again, back to back. 

The only real issue in his game is his off the tee accuracy percentage, it’s not bad reading but if he can get this as good as he was at the AT&T, he will be well within a shout of winning here. Great putting stats across the board and he rarely losses any shots putting per round.    

His past results around here have been steady, his best result was in 2016 where he finished in ninth place.    

Going to stick with another £5 EW bet here. He is as big as 100/1 on the Exch. 

JOEL DAHMEN (USA) 125/1 

How has Joel not managed to win yet on the PGA is a mystery to me and the team.  

Since joining the PGA Tour in 2018 he has been very close on a number of occasions. He was in contention at the Greenbrier in his first season and then followed that with a great chance to win the John Deere the following week. Second place at the Wells Fargo last year and already this year he has managed some great results, his last two run outs he has finished in the top five twice. 

  • Off the Tee – 24th PGA Tour  
  • Approach to Green – 22nd PGA Tour 
  • Tee to Green – 11th PGA Tour 

Steady golf is the main reason he is in this week. What I did like was his three-putt avoidance streak he has managed 221 holes so far without a three putt, pretty impressive.  

He is also a very good Saturday and Sunday performer so if he can make his seventh cut in a row, he should be a good banker for us either way.   

I am going with another £3 EW bet here. You can get 125/1  

Pin It on Pinterest

Share This