TYRRELL HATTON (ENG) 90/1- £3EW- Unibet/888Sport – 6 places – Exch 107/1
PATRICK REED (USA) 50/1- £5EW- Unibet/888Sport – 6 places
RAFA CABRERA BELLO (SPA) 80/1-£3EW PP/Betfair – 7 places – Exch 107/1
PAUL CASEY (ENG) 40/1 – £5EW- SkyBet – 7 places – Exch 44/1
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (KOR) 20/1 – £10 WIN ONLY BET
Chapultepec GC, Mexico City, Feb 20th – 23rd 2020
The game’s best are set to tee it up at the Club de Golf Chapultepec this week for the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship, hosted in the Mexican capital for the first time. The 7,330-yard par 71 course is located in the Naucalpan area of the city.
Opened in 1921, the course hosted the Mexican Open regularly from 1944 to 1960 and four times since.
At 7,300 feet above sea level, the ball travels further than normal, leading to the course being designed in such a way to reward precision over distance. Tight tee shots are coupled with tricky greens, which slope down toward the city. Tightly clustered trees line the fairways, punishing errant tee shots and leaving little choice but to punch the ball back into the fairway rather than head for the green.
There are only two water hazards on the course, but both defend the greens of two of the par threes, the seventh and 17th holes respectively.
This course is not that long, because we’re so high above sea level that the balls just fly. The way these boys hit it, you’d have to make it an 8,000 yard plus course to give them a challenge when it comes to distance, so that won’t be an issue here. It’s about positioning, shaping the shots and, at this altitude, it’s about controlling your distance.
Being able to shot shape will be key this week and I think the players will love it, because there is a lot of challenging shot choices on both nines. It’s a well-balanced test, you have to be able to move the ball from left to right or right to left. So, you’ll need to control your trajectories.
On the back nine the tenth. It’s one of the hardest holes to hit the fairway if you’re hitting a driver. It’s reachable in two, but you have to hit a hard draw with driver and a hard fade on the second shot, so that’s what I mean about needing to be good at shot-making.
The 18th needs a really hard draw from the tee and the green is tough, as it slopes from back to front. You could be pin high at five feet and could have a break of two feet. It’s not a flat surface, so the green is going to defend the hole. It’s also important to know that from the tee you have to draw it. If you hit it straight you could end up in the right rough or even worse the right bunker, making that second shot slightly tougher coming down the stretch.
- 2019 Dustin Johnson 11/1
- 2018 Phil Mickelson 25/1
- 2017 Dustin Johnson 7/1
- 2016 Adam Scott 12/1
- 2015 Dustin Johnson 22/1
- 2014 Patrick Reed 80/1
- 2013 Tiger Woods 12/1
- 2012 Justin Rose 66/1
TYRRELL HATTON (ENG) 90/1
This will be Tyrrell’s first event of 2020. His last event was at the DP World Tour and a couple of weeks before that he won the Turkish Airlines Open in November 2019.
Lots to like at this venue he was tenth in 2017, followed that with a third in 2018, and then last year another cut made and a respectable top twenty finish. My only real concern is the fact it is his first event for over two months so could be a bit rusty or he could come out fresh and ready to go at a place where he enjoys his golf. It could be a magic start to 2020 for him.
I know he is solid on the greens and that is something he always delivers on based on his last two years on the European Tour stats he has featured in the top ten for Putts Per GIR and inside the top twenty-five for average putts per round.
90/1 is about right, I am going to wager a smaller EW bet here £3 EW. 90/1 with 888 Sport/Unibet 6 places.
PATRICK REED (USA) 50/1
Love him or hate him when your betting sometimes you just have to put that aside. Never bet with your heart as you see many a novice punter doing at for example the Masters when the likely candidates make an appearance on many betting slips ?.
For me this is a place he will shine, in good form as well of late and it is a pure putters paradise. Not many putters better than him when on his game, so will be looking for him to make plenty of birdies, he normally averages around 4.41 per round.
Sneaky long off the tee, with an average accuracy percentage. His tee to green is always good and what I like the most here is his going for the green birdie or better at 70.27%.
So, trending in the right direction, already with three top ten’s this season. Previous results here just get better.
- 2017 – 61st
- 2018 – 37th
- 2019 – 14th
- 2020 – ???
I am going for a basic £5 EW bet here at 50/1 with three bookmakers at this price Unibet/Betfred/888Sport.
RAFA CABRERA BELLO (SPA) 80/1
Rafa is a bit of a thorn in the side for us. Last year we tipped him four times with two missed cuts but managed two top twenty places. He has to deliver for us soon, we made the mistake of mentioning to him in the past GBT have you backed this week. I told the team not to say a word to him or his caddie keep quiet. Let’s see if it makes a difference haha.
Three years now since his last win. He is a much better player and should have won a lot more than this, I think if he can just break this drought, he will go on and win a lot more over the next few years, maybe even a Major contender.
He was third place here in 2018 and seems to like this set up around here.
This will be another smaller price bet here £3 EW at 80/1. You can also get 90/1 and 100/1 still in places taken 18/2/20.
PAUL CASEY (ENG) 40/1
One of our best cash returners has to be Paul. The last time Mike tipped him was way back at the ZOZO in October 2019 where he had a good week finishing in 17th place.
It seems to be the same old story with Paul the nearer it gets to the Masters the better his game gets.
The world number 22 and at 40/1 sounds too good to miss this week. He has had a couple of top twenties’ already this year and came close to the win at the Aussie Open.
This course suits pure ball strikers and not many better in the game today than Paul, off the tee his game as good as I have seen it in a while, he still manages to get it out there which will also help.
The putter has cost him getting some better results of late, if he switches the old magic on he should go well here.
Betting £5 EW 40/1 SkyBet paying 7 places.
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (KOR) 20/1
Out of the top favs this week I like the look of Hideki. Twenty is fairly low but still a good bet here.
Form coming in pretty impressive:
CJ CUP 3RD – ZOZO 2ND – WGC HSBC 11TH – PHOENIX 8TH – SONY 12TH – WASTE 16TH – GENESIS 5TH
Always a solid bet and with good reason he is a quality player and, in my opinion, should have won many more titles. Five PGA titles is good combined with eight international victories is still very impressive.
Few key factors why he goes in, taken from the PGA Tour:
- GIR – 73.86% 12th
- Eagles – 76.5 11th
- Birdie Average – 4.26 28th
- Scoring Average – 69.28 3rd
- Tee to Green – 4th
Not much really to say apart from I might look at placing a win only bet here this week. Looking around for the best price, most have him at 20/1 but the exchange is 23/1.
SCOTT BROWN (USA) 28/1 – £5EW – SkyBet – 5 places
KYOUNG-HOON LEE (KOR) 60/1 – £5EW – SkyBet – 5 places
KIRADECH APHIBARNRAT (THA) 60/1 – £5EW – Betfred – 6 places
JHONATTAN VEGAS (VEN) 33/1 – £5EW – Betfair – 7 places
Coco Beach Golf & CC, Rio Grande, Feb 20th – 23rd 2020
The Puerto Rico Open is a professional golf tournament on the PGA Tour that was first played in 2008. It is the only PGA Tour event ever held in Puerto Rico. The tournament is played at the Coco Beach Golf Course “previously Trump International Golf Club Puerto Rico” which was designed by Tom Kite. From its inception through to 2015, it was played in early March as an alternate event to the WGC Cadillac Championship, but in 2016 it moved to late March, opposite the WGC-Dell Match Play.
The winner of the Puerto Rico Open earns 300 FedEx Cup points and 24 OWGR points, compared to 550 FedEx Cup and 70-80 OWGR points for World Golf Championships. As an alternate event, the winner does not earn a bid to the Masters, but still receives a two-year exemption on the PGA Tour (compared to three for a WGC event) and entry into the PGA Championship as a Tour winner. In 2015, the prize fund was three million dollars with $540,000 going to the winner.
For 2018, the Puerto Rico Open was made an unofficial event as a fundraiser for relief efforts after Hurricane Maria, where it is played at TPC Dorado Beach. The event has now become official ready for 2020.
- 2019 M Trainer 125/1
- 2017 D.A Points 175/1
- 2016 Tony Finau 50/1
- 2015 Alex Cejka 125/1
- 2014 Chesson Hadley 50/1
- 2013 Scott Brown 50/1
SCOTT BROWN (USA) 28/1
Lots to like here this week and a player who is playing some of his best golf coming off a great second place finish at the Genesis invitational last week.
Previously he had missed four straight cuts so he found something in his game, I think he always tends to start slow so finds it hard to chase downs cut lines on Friday’s. The events he does make the weekends at he normally preforms well.
So much to like at this event as well over the past seven years.
5th / Winner / 64th / 10th / 5th / 17th / 10th
I reckon more of the same from him. If you were to look at his stats you would ask the question Why. For me sometimes you just have to take your mind away for figures and just look at a golf course match. A real shot shapers course big tick from Scott, we saw him on trackman earlier in the week, wow this boy has the lot he is also a master class ball striker.
KYOUNG-HOON LEE (KOR) 60/1
A hit and miss record week on week. This is why I like him at this price here. It is a much weaker field than he has been keeping company with of late and the couple of missed cuts have only been a shot here and there.
We liked what we saw of Lee last week at the Genesis especially over the weekend. He had a good run at the RSM Classic finishing in fifth place and followed that a couple of weeks later with a good American Express.
What was surprising to us was his greens in regulation is normally higher than 60 or 70 %, but last week this was as low as 50% and he still managed a 13th place finish. He always seems to make ground on the field putting, he has made over a shot and a half putting in four of his last six starts. I feel we will see much of the same this week.
Should feature well, going for a £5 EW bet here with SkyBet at 50/1 paying 5 places.
KIRADECH APHIBARNRAT (THA) 60/1
Good friend of the GBT squad. When he comes over to the UK to play in the BMW we always get together with him Thongchai, Prom and a few others from Thailand and have a great Thai BBQ night.
I asked him how he feels this week and the reason behind the three missed cuts. He admitted the driver has been awful and was the main reason, this he said does not give you much confidence when on your approach shots or when on the green.
That said what we saw of him driving the ball on the front nine yesterday, and he hit the first five fairways setting up some great approach play. It could change here this week with a much weaker field, if he was showing any real form the bookies would have him nearer to 30/1.
Going for a £5 EW with Betfred 60/1 paying 6 places.
JHONATTAN VEGAS (VEN) 33/1
What a little beauty of a bet here this week. His is on the verge of something especial and it could happen here this week. Two top twenties’ in his last five starts, just missing the cut last week was not the worst thing that could have happened as he got here nice an early to get used to the set up.
There will not be too many players better in the field this week off the tee, and his overall total driving is so solid.
Boxes ticked for the team here this week are:
- Soft Positive +
- Coastal Positive +
- Wind Positive +
- Paspalum Positive +
Sticking with a £5 EW bet here 35/1 in places.