TIPS RE-CAP  

Chapultepec GC, Mexico City, Feb 20th – 23rd 2020 

The game’s best are set to tee it up at the Club de Golf Chapultepec this week for the World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship, hosted in the Mexican capital for the first time. The 7,330-yard par 71 course is located in the Naucalpan area of the city.  

Opened in 1921, the course hosted the Mexican Open regularly from 1944 to 1960 and four times since. 

At 7,300 feet above sea level, the ball travels further than normal, leading to the course being designed in such a way to reward precision over distance. Tight tee shots are coupled with tricky greens, which slope down toward the city. Tightly clustered trees line the fairways, punishing errant tee shots and leaving little choice but to punch the ball back into the fairway rather than head for the green.  

There are only two water hazards on the course, but both defend the greens of two of the par threes, the seventh and 17th holes respectively. 

Players Suited 

This course is not that long, because we’re so high above sea level that the balls just fly. The way these boys hit it, you’d have to make it an 8,000 yard plus course to give them a challenge when it comes to distance, so that won’t be an issue here. It’s about positioning, shaping the shots and, at this altitude, it’s about controlling your distance. 

Being able to shot shape will be key this week and I think the players will love it, because there is a lot of challenging shot choices on both nines. It’s a well-balanced test, you have to be able to move the ball from left to right or right to left. So, you’ll need to control your trajectories.  

On the back nine the tenth. It’s one of the hardest holes to hit the fairway if you’re hitting a driver. It’s reachable in two, but you have to hit a hard draw with driver and a hard fade on the second shot, so that’s what I mean about needing to be good at shot-making. 

The 18th needs a really hard draw from the tee and the green is tough, as it slopes from back to front. You could be pin high at five feet and could have a break of two feet. It’s not a flat surface, so the green is going to defend the hole. It’s also important to know that from the tee you have to draw it. If you hit it straight you could end up in the right rough or even worse the right bunker, making that second shot slightly tougher coming down the stretch.  

Past Results 

• 2019 Dustin Johnson 11/1 
• 2018 Phil Mickelson 25/1 
• 2017 Dustin Johnson 7/1 
• 2016 Adam Scott 12/1 
• 2015 Dustin Johnson 22/1 
• 2014 Patrick Reed 80/1 
• 2013 Tiger Woods 12/1 
• 2012 Justin Rose 66/1  

Mike’s Picks: 

TYRRELL HATTON (ENG) 90/1  

This will be Tyrrell’s first event of 2020. His last event was at the DP World Tour and a couple of weeks before that he won the Turkish Airlines Open in November 2019.  

Lots to like at this venue he was tenth in 2017, followed that with a third in 2018, and then last year another cut made and a respectable top twenty finish. My only real concern is the fact it is his first event for over two months so could be a bit rusty or he could come out fresh and ready to go at a place where he enjoys his golf. It could be a magic start to 2020 for him.  

I know he is solid on the greens and that is something he always delivers on based on his last two years on the European Tour stats he has featured in the top ten for Putts Per GIR and inside the top twenty-five for average putts per round.  

90/1 is about right, I am going to wager a smaller EW bet here £3 EW. 90/1 with 888 Sport/Unibet 6 places.  

PATRICK REED (USA) 50/1  

Love him or hate him when your betting sometimes you just have to put that aside. Never bet with your heart as you see many a novice punter doing at for example the Masters when the likely candidates make an appearance on many betting slips ?. 

For me this is a place he will shine, in good form as well of late and it is a pure putters paradise. Not many putters better than him when on his game, so will be looking for him to make plenty of birdies, he normally averages around 4.41 per round. 

Sneaky long off the tee, with an average accuracy percentage. His tee to green is always good and what I like the most here is his going for the green birdie or better at 70.27%.     

So, trending in the right direction, already with three top ten’s this season. Previous results here just get better.  

• 2017 – 61st  
• 2018 – 37th  
• 2019 – 14th  
• 2020 – ??? 

I am going for a basic £5 EW bet here at 50/1 with three bookmakers at this price Unibet/Betfred/888Sport.

RAFA CABRERA BELLO (SPA) 80/1 

Rafa is a bit of a thorn in the side for us. Last year we tipped him four times with two missed cuts but managed two top twenty places. He has to deliver for us soon, we made the mistake of mentioning to him in the past GBT have you backed this week. I told the team not to say a word to him or his caddie keep quiet. Let’s see if it makes a difference haha. 

Three years now since his last win. He is a much better player and should have won a lot more than this, I think if he can just break this drought, he will go on and win a lot more over the next few years, maybe even a Major contender.  

He was third place here in 2018 and seems to like this set up around here.   

This will be another smaller price bet here £3 EW at 80/1. You can also get 90/1 and 100/1 still in places taken 18/2/20.

PAUL CASEY (ENG) 40/1  

One of our best cash returners has to be Paul. The last time Mike tipped him was way back at the ZOZO in October 2019 where he had a good week finishing in 17th place.  

It seems to be the same old story with Paul the nearer it gets to the Masters the better his game gets.  

The world number 22 and at 40/1 sounds too good to miss this week. He has had a couple of top twenties’ already this year and came close to the win at the Aussie Open.   

This course suits pure ball strikers and not many better in the game today than Paul, off the tee his game as good as I have seen it in a while, he still manages to get it out there which will also help. 

The putter has cost him getting some better results of late, if he switches the old magic on he should go well here.  

Betting £5 EW 40/1 SkyBet paying 7 places.  

HIDEKI MATSUYAMA (KOR) 20/1 

Out of the top favs this week I like the look of Hideki. Twenty is fairly low but still a good bet here.  

Form coming in pretty impressive: 

CJ CUP 3RD – ZOZO 2ND – WGC HSBC 11TH – PHOENIX 8TH – SONY 12TH – WASTE 16TH – GENESIS 5TH     

Always a solid bet and with good reason he is a quality player and, in my opinion, should have won many more titles. Five PGA titles is good combined with eight international victories is still very impressive. 

Few key factors why he goes in,  taken from the PGA Tour: 

• GIR – 73.86% 12th  
• Eagles – 76.5 11th  
• Birdie Average – 4.26 28th  
• Scoring Average – 69.28 3rd   
• Tee to Green – 4th    

Not much really to say apart from I might look at placing a win only bet here this week. Looking around for the best price, most have him at 20/1 but the exchange is 23/1.